Iran War Analysis Lebanon May 7, 2026

The former head of MI6 called it “Alice in Wonderland stuff.” He wasn’t wrong. Welcome to the most confusing war de-escalation in recent memory.

GULF OF OMAN Hot – US F-18 fired on and disabled an Iranian tanker today. Blockade holding.

DIPLOMACY Stalled- Iran reviewing US proposal. Pakistani mediators waiting. No response yet.

LEBANON Escalating – First Israeli strike on Beirut in weeks. 120+ killed in Lebanon in the past 7 days.

Somewhere between the Oval Office photo opportunity with UFC fighters and a US Navy jet disabling an Iranian oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman, President Trump found time to insist — twice, with conviction — that a deal to end the war with Iran is within reach. The Iranians, meanwhile, described the American proposal as more of a wish list than a serious negotiating document. Both sides, apparently, believe they are winning. That is either the beginning of a deal or the beginning of something much worse.

Here is where things actually stand. The US military’s blockade of Iranian ports and flagged vessels is functioning. Today’s incident — a US F-18 firing on and disabling the rudder of an Iranian tanker attempting to cross the blockade in the Gulf of Oman — confirms that Washington is not softening its enforcement posture regardless of what the president is saying at the podium. Iran’s oil revenues are being strangled. Its economy is under genuine pressure. Trump, who has been saying Iran is “desperate” to make a deal, is not entirely wrong about the leverage he holds.