ANALYSIS IRAN WAR · DAY 60 US MILITARY

Fox News military analyst General Jack Keane laid it out plainly: the blockade is working, Iran doesn’t actually want a deal, and the White House’s patience is running out. Here’s what that means for what comes next.

Background: The US–Israel war with Iran entered a ceasefire roughly three weeks ago. The Strait of Hormuz blockade remains in place. Talks on a deal have stalled, with no clear interlocutor on the Iranian side. US Marines boarded a commercial ship today attempting to violate the blockade — the 39th vessel redirected since it began.

If you want to understand where the Iran conflict is actually heading — not the diplomatic talking points, not the Truth Social posts, but the real assessment from people who’ve spent careers thinking about this — it’s worth paying attention to what General Jack Keane said on Fox News Tuesday evening. Because the retired four-star general, who has been right about these things before, made it sound like the ceasefire era is drawing to a close.

His core argument is blunt: Iran never wanted a deal. The three weeks of ceasefire talks were, in his view, a stall tactic — designed to let political and economic pressure build on President Trump until he either made major concessions or walked away and called it a win. “The Iranians are miscalculating and underestimating him again,” Keane said. That’s a pointed thing to say on television. It’s also, given the pattern of the last 60 days, hard to simply dismiss.

“The people running this regime — their only objective is to survive and stay in power. They don’t care about the suffering of their people.”

— Gen. Jack Keane (Ret.), Fox News

Here’s what makes the current moment genuinely significant: according to Keane, US Central Command has used the ceasefire period to double its military capability from where it was at the start of the war. Israel has also restocked munition shortages. So the pause hasn’t just been diplomatic — it’s been logistical preparation. The next phase, if it comes, will be more powerful than the first.

THE BLOCKADE IS WORKING — MAYBE TOO WELL FOR IRAN TO IGNORE