Fuel prices, polling and competing strategies shape the final stretch of the campaign, analysts say

November 2, 2026

As U.S. voters prepare to cast ballots in the midterm elections, the ongoing American military conflict with Iran has become a major campaign issue, largely because of its economic effects. Political strategists and an Iranian academic discussed the conflict’s influence on the races on Al Jazeera’s Inside Story, hosted by Mohammed Jam.

Economic effects

Military actions against Iran, including the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, have disrupted global supply chains and energy markets. The result has been a sharp rise in fuel prices worldwide, which has pushed up the cost of goods and services in the United States.

Recent polling points to public dissatisfaction with the conflict:

• Nearly 70 percent of U.S. voters say the war was not worth fighting.
• About 71 percent disapprove of President Donald Trump’s handling of it.
• Reuters/Ipsos figures show the president’s approval rating at 32 percent heading into the vote.

Voters across party lines are increasingly linking foreign policy to the cost of living, citing higher expenses for energy, housing and child care.

Republican view

Patrick Mara, chairman of the Washington, D.C., Republican Party, acknowledged that rising fuel costs are affecting how people vote. He said Trump built his political base in part by campaigning against foreign military entanglements, but that the current situation cannot be reversed overnight.

Mara said candidates in key swing states such as Michigan and Maine have begun to distinguish their positions from the administration’s on the conflict and economic pressures. He said this shows the importance of individual candidate quality in regional races.

Democratic view

Democratic strategist James Butler said it is unusual for foreign policy to drive a midterm election. In his view, the war and inflation are now “inseparable” at voters’ dinner tables, and some voters who backed the administration on economic grounds are losing confidence in it.

Butler said that if Democrats win majorities in the House and Senate, they would use Congress’s “power of the purse” to defund the conflict and wind it down through diplomatic channels.

View from Tehran

Hassan Ahmadian, associate professor at the University of Tehran and deputy director at the Center for Middle East Scientific and Strategic Studies, described how Iran’s leadership is approaching the U.S. election cycle. He said Tehran is taking a long-term view rather than pinning immediate hopes on the midterm outcome.

According to Ahmadian, Iran’s main aim is to ensure that any administration taking military action against it pays a significant political and economic price. He said a politically weakened administration, possibly constrained by a divided or opposition-controlled Congress, could create better conditions for future negotiations than a confident one pursuing military options.

What comes next

Analysts agree the results will have significant consequences for congressional oversight, war powers and diplomatic approaches in the Middle East. Whether through legislative limits on military funding or continued mediation by regional actors such as Qatar, the link between foreign policy and economic security is expected to remain a defining challenge for the U.S. government.