The president is bringing 16 CEOs, a freshly un-sanctioned Secretary of State, and what looks very much like a message: the window for a deal is closing fast.

Air Force One en route to Beijing for what could be one of the most consequential summits of Trump’s second term. (Photo: suggested stock / wire)

Air Force One lifted off Tuesday with a passenger list that reads less like a diplomatic delegation and more like a Forbes cover shoot. Rubio, Hegseth, Scott Bessent, Elon Musk, and chief executives from Apple, Boeing, Goldman Sachs, and Visa are all making the trip to Beijing — where, for once, the Chinese are actually rolling out a welcome mat.

The timing isn’t subtle. Marco Rubio had been banned and sanctioned by China for six years. They quietly lifted it just before departure. That’s not a coincidence — that’s Beijing signaling it wants this meeting to go well, at least on the surface.

“We make a lot of money with China. Good things are going to happen. A very exciting trip.”

Trump framed the visit in characteristically optimistic terms, but the agenda is anything but light. Taiwan, AI dominance, and — crucially — Iran are all on the table. And that last item is where things get genuinely complicated.

Iran’s latest negotiating proposal was rejected by Trump as “unacceptable,” and the ceasefire that had been holding is now, in the words of people close to the talks, on life support. The administration isn’t hiding its frustration. NBC News is reporting that the Pentagon already has a name ready for a resumed bombing campaign: Operation Sledgehammer. That’s not the kind of codename you assign to a backup plan nobody intends to use.

The pressure campaign is intensifying on multiple fronts. The naval embargo has reportedly turned back 65 ships, squeezing the IRGC’s oil pipeline to Chinese buyers. Treasury sanctions keep piling on. And in what may be the least subtle diplomatic signal in recent memory, the Pentagon publicly disclosed the location of a nuclear-capable submarine currently docked in Gibraltar — hours after Tehran sent over that rejected proposal. The U.S. almost never reveals where its nuclear submarines are. That wasn’t an accident.

“My judgment is the best thing to do is go back and finish what we started.”

Reports have also surfaced that both the U.S. and Israel are actively discussing a special operations mission to physically remove Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Whether that’s a real operational plan or deliberate psychological pressure on Tehran is hard to say from the outside — but the Iranians are almost certainly treating it as real.

Meanwhile, the regional picture is shifting fast. The UAE is said to have carried out covert strikes on an Iranian oil refinery last month, and Reuters is reporting that Saudi Arabia launched missiles into Iranian territory in retaliation for Iranian aggression. When Riyadh and Jerusalem are coordinating against a common adversary, Tehran’s position is considerably more isolated than its public statements suggest.

Back home, Democrats are crying strategic defeat, pointing to elevated inflation and a stalled negotiation as evidence the approach isn’t working. Trump, predictably, disagrees — and notes that pre-war inflation had been sitting at 1.7%. The Dow, for its part, is up. Wages are rising. Crude prices are still lower than they were 12 weeks ago, even with the Strait of Hormuz bottleneck in play. The economic case for the administration’s approach is, at minimum, not collapsing.

The next 48 hours in Beijing will tell us a great deal. If the Chinese are willing to apply real pressure on Tehran — even a little — Trump has something to bring home. If Xi plays it cautiously and protects his oil supply relationships, the “peaceful” half of Trump’s binary evaporates. And then there’s only the other kind.